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Transport update on the UAE logistics market for October 2025

Global trade continues to face significant disruption. According to the United Nations, the industry is experiencing the longest-running interruptions to major arteries of commerce since the Suez Canal closure in 1967, with bottlenecks at ports, canals, and shipping lanes. Yet despite these challenges, the OECD’s revised macroeconomic outlook points to stronger-than-expected global growth in 2025, forecasting GDP expansion of 3.2% worldwide - 0.3% higher than last year. Against this backdrop, logistics remains both resilient and adaptive.

Air Freight

  • In air freight, demand and pricing are closely linked to macroeconomic performance and ongoing geopolitical factors such as trade policies, tariffs, and regional tensions. Dedicated freighter capacity has been trending downward since February, while passenger capacity continues to grow steadily at around 5% year-on-year.
  • Airlines across the Middle East - particularly Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways are investing heavily in high-value sectors such as pharmaceuticals, e-commerce, and temperature-controlled cargo. Industry analysts expect stabilization in the second half of the year, with healthcare logistics and cross-border online trade acting as primary growth drivers.
  • Etihad Airways marked a milestone in August, carrying over 2 million passengers in a single month for the first time, a 22% increase compared to last year, with a load factor of 91%. Its fleet now counts 112 aircraft, including the newly introduced A321LR, enhancing regional operations with premium cabin options. Etihad also announced a new direct route to Damascus, Syria, to commence in June 2026, reflecting rising demand for regional connectivity. Etihad will operate four weekly flights on a narrow-body A320 aircraft.
  • Emirates continues to position Dubai as a global aviation hub, opening a state-of-the-art crew training center in September. The facility reinforces the carrier’s long-term expansion strategy. Meanwhile, Air Arabia Abu Dhabi is deepening links with Egypt, adding direct services to Assiut from November, complementing its existing Cairo and Alexandria routes. flydubai is expanding in Africa, launching new flights to Nairobi in October and increasing frequencies to Mombasa to a daily service, while also sealing a new interline agreement with Romania’s TAROM to expand connectivity across Europe.

Ocean Freight

Maritime logistics reflects a more cautious outlook. Global demand remains broadly stable with fleet growth running at 7% year-on-year, supported by full order books that help manage congestion and diversions around the Suez Canal. However, spot rates on several trades have retreated to 2023 levels, highlighting softer volumes and disciplined carrier capacity management. Elevated US tariffs add further cost pressures, although trade flows continue.

Market Outlook

Despite persistent geopolitical and operational challenges, the logistics sector continues to adapt through capacity investment and targeted service expansion. For shippers, the focus remains on agility—balancing cost efficiency with compliance and ensuring secure access to resilient trade lanes in a volatile environment.
2025-10-02 14:00 Market update